the world in 2050 four forces shaping civilization s northern future

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The World In 2050

Author : Laurence C. Smith
ISBN : 9781101443521
Genre : Science
File Size : 61. 52 MB
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A vivid forecast of our planet in the year 2050 by a rising star in geoscience, distilling cutting-edge research into four global forces: demographic trends, natural resource demand, climate change, and globalization. The world's population is exploding, wild species are vanishing, our environment is degrading, and the costs of resources from oil to water are going nowhere but up. So what kind of world are we leaving for our children and grandchildren? Geoscientist and Guggenheim fellow Laurence Smith draws on the latest global modeling research to construct a sweeping thought experiment on what our world will be like in 2050. The result is both good news and bad: Eight nations of the Arctic Rim (including the United States) will become increasingly prosperous, powerful, and politically stable, while those closer to the equator will face water shortages, aging populations, and crowded megacities sapped by the rising costs of energy and coastal flooding. The World in 2050 combines the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data-everything from climate dynamics and resource stocks to age distributions and economic growth projections. But Smith offers more than a compendium of statistics and studies- he spent fifteen months traveling the Arctic Rim, collecting stories and insights that resonate throughout the book. It is an approach much like Jared Diamond took in Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse, a work of geoscientific investigation rich in the appreciation of human diversity. Packed with stunning photographs, original maps, and informative tables, this is the most authoritative, balanced, and compelling account available of the world of challenges and opportunities that we will leave for our children.

Surviving The Techstorm

Author : Nicklas Bergman
ISBN : 9781910649619
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 32. 50 MB
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Are we living in a time that is more exciting, more dangerous and more encouraging than any previous era in world history? We really do not know, but what we do know is that each new era and technological paradigm shift present particular challenges and opportunities. Knowing which path to take or what decisions to make in combination with these new developments is one of the greatest challenges facing business today. This book presents a framework on how to relate to these times of enormous technological uncertainties. The author, a leading futurist and successful tech investor, argues that it is by combining a historical perspective with a curiosity and understanding of technology that we can gain significant insight into possible, probable and/or preferable futures.

Leadership Or Chaos

Author : Norman Schofield
ISBN : 3642195164
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 49. 23 MB
Format : PDF
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Combining elements of economic reasoning and political science has proven to be very useful for understanding the broad variation in economic development around the world. In a sense research in this field goes back to the Scottish Enlightenment and Adam Smith’s original plan in his Theory of Moral Sentiments and Wealth of Nations. Leadership or Chaos by Norman Schofield and Maria Gallego is intended as an advanced, self-contained text in political economy dealing with social choice. The theory and empirical analysis are used to examine democratic institutions and elections in the developed world, and the success or failure of moves to democratization in the less developed world. The book closes with a consideration of current quandaries with regard to political and economic stability and climate change and a discussion of the moral foundations of our society.

Sustainable Program Management

Author : Gregory T Haugan
ISBN : 9781466575165
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 20. 33 MB
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The world is undergoing major transitions due to three driving forces—population changes, climate changes, and energy resource constraints—making it essential for us to move toward sustainability in the implementation of projects and programs as well as our everyday life. Real sustainability exists where there is a balance between population and energy usage and a stable climate—global equilibrium. Designed for program and portfolio managers and senior planners, Sustainable Program Management provides essential information on the three major driving forces of the coming decades and presents options to assist us in moving toward a sustainable future. This book offers a unique approach to accommodating the three new constraints of population change, climate change, and energy resources as impacts on programs and portfolios. It presents them in the form of overlays, which facilitate planning by considering the effects of these additional constraints on a program, along with schedule, budget, and performance constraints. The overlays summarize the book’s extensive analyses of these global challenges. The book is divided into sections on population change, climate change, and energy resource constraints and provides background information and overlays for each one. The author discusses scenarios, possible solutions, and probable outcomes, which provide the basis for evaluating the risks and the sustainability considerations involved. The final section of the text addresses planning for real sustainability and describes six pathways toward a sustainable system. This practical book familiarizes readers with these new global challenges to program management and provides a basis for developing sustainable and successful programs.

Unsafety

Author : Shigeo Atsuji
ISBN : 9784431559245
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 69. 68 MB
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This is the first book to examine the linkages among natural and organizational accidents and disasters in the modern era and clarifies the mechanisms involved and the significance of emerging problems, from the aging of vital infrastructure for the supply of water, gas, oil, and electricity to the breakdown of pensions, healthcare, and other social systems. The book demonstrates how we might check the underlying civilizational collapse and then explore translational systems approaches toward resilient management and policy for sustainability. In Unsafety, the author focuses on the kinds of unnatural disasters and organizational accidents that arise as repercussions of natural hazards. Japan serves as an example, where earthquakes, tsunamis, and typhoons are common, with the Fukushima nuclear disaster as an outstanding case of this link between natural disasters and organizational accidents. Natural and human-made disasters happen worldwide and cause misery through loss of life; destruction of livelihoods as in agriculture, fisheries, and the manufacturing industry; and interruption of urban life. Unsafety from a disaster in one place increases uncertainty elsewhere, presenting urgent issues in all nations for individuals, organizations, regions, and the state. The author explains that one factor in the Fukushima catastrophe, which followed in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in 2011, was the latent deterioration and aging of systems at all levels from the physical to the social, leading through a chain reaction to unsought and unforeseen consequences. Here, the aging of the nuclear reactor system, the breakdown of safety management, and inappropriate instructions from the regulatory authorities combined to create the three-fold disaster, in which technological, organizational, and governmental dysfunction have been diagnosed as reflecting a “systems pathology” infecting all levels.

Economic Growth And Sustainability

Author : Karen L. Higgins
ISBN : 9780128031087
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 90. 55 MB
Format : PDF
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How to sustain our world for future generations has perplexed us for centuries. We have reached a crossroads: we may choose the rocky path of responsibility or continue on the paved road of excess that promises hardship for our progeny. Independent efforts to resolve isolated issues are inadequate. Different from these efforts and from other books on the topic, this book uses systems thinking to understand the dominant forces that are shaping our hope for sustainability. It first describes a mental model - the bubble that holds our beliefs - that emerges from preponderant world views and explains current global trends. The model emphasizes economic growth and drives behavior toward short-term and self-motivated outcomes that thwart sustainability. The book then weaves statistical trends into a system diagram and shows how the economic, environmental, and societal contributors of sustainability interact. From this holistic perspective, it finds leverage points where actions can be most effective and combines eight areas of intervention into an integrated plan. By emphasizing both individual and collective actions, it addresses the conundrum of how to blend human nature with sustainability. Finally, it identifies primary three lessons we can learn by applying systems thinking to sustainability. Its metaphor-rich and accessible style makes the complex topic approachable and allows the reader to appreciate the intricate balance required to sustain life on Earth. Highlights the application of system thinking in economics Identifies systemic leveraging actions for achieving sustainability Outlines a comprehensive and integrated plan for achieving sustainable stewardship in the future

International Books In Print

Author : Archie Rugh
ISBN : 3598222890
Genre : English imprints
File Size : 40. 68 MB
Format : PDF, Mobi
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