structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis;

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Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis

Author : Heuer J Richards
ISBN : 9781608710188
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 40. 85 MB
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Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson turn a lifetime of expertise into formalizing, adapting, and standardizing a set of 50 of the most robust analytic techniques in use in intelligence analysis today. This ready reference showcases current and cutting-edge best practices and represents a significant leap forward in depth, detail and utility from existing handbooks. Logically organized and richly illustrated, Structured Analytic Techniques makes it easy to navigate, reference, and put the tools to use right away. Each technique is clearly and systematically explained: when to use, value added, the method, potential pitfalls, examples of how it can be used, its relationship to other techniques, and its origins. THE TECHNIQUES * Getting Started Checklist * Customer Checklist * Issue Redefinition * Chronologies and Timelines * Sorting * Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing * Matrices * Network Analysis * Mind Maps and Concept Maps * Process Maps and Gantt Charts * Structured Brainstorming * Virtual Brainstorming * Nominal Group Technique * Starbursting * Cross-Impact Matrix * Morphological Analysis * Quadrant Crunching * Basic Scenario Analysis * Alternative Futures Analysis * Multiple Scenario Generation * Indicators * Indicators Validator * Simple Hypothesis * Multiple Hypotheses Generator * Quadrant Hypothesis Generation * Diagnostic Reasoning * Analysis of Competing Hypotheses * Argument Mapping * Deception Detection * Key Assumptions Check * Structured Analogies * Role Playing * Red Hat Analysis * Outside-In Thinking * Policy Outcomes Forecasting Model * Prediction Markets * Premortem Analysis * Structured Self-Critique * What If? Analysis * High Impact/Low Probability Analysis * Devil's Advocacy * Red Team Analysis * Delphi Method * Adversarial Collaboration * Structured Debate * Complexity Manager * Decision Matrix * Force Field Analysis * Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes * SWOT Analysis

Cases In Intelligence Analysis

Author : Sarah Miller Beebe
ISBN : 9781483340142
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 84. 4 MB
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In their Second Edition of Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson offer robust, class-tested cases studies of events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. Designed to give analysts-in-training an opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques and tackle real-life problems, each turnkey case delivers a captivating narrative, discussion questions, recommended readings, and a series of engaging analytic exercises.

Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis

Author : Richards J. Heuer Jr.
ISBN : 9781483323022
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 48. 62 MB
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In this Second Edition of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, authors Richards J. Heuer Jr. and Randolph H. Pherson showcase fifty-five structured analytic techniques—five new to this edition—that represent the most current best practices in intelligence, law enforcement, homeland security, and business analysis.

A Tradecraft Primer Structured Analytic Techniques For Improving Intelligence Analysis

Author : Center for the Study of Intelligence
ISBN : 9781105810886
Genre :
File Size : 70. 92 MB
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Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis 2nd Ed Cases In Intelligence Analysis 2nd Ed

Author : Richards J. Heuer, Jr.
ISBN : 1483369234
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 79. 6 MB
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Die Weisheit Der Vielen

Author : James Surowiecki
ISBN : 9783864705144
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 44. 89 MB
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Publikumsjoker sticht Expertenmeinung. Mit unverstelltem Blick untersucht der amerikanische Autor das Phänomen der Gruppe und ihrer klugen Entscheidungen, wenn die richtigen Voraussetzungen gegeben sind. Eine aufschlussreiche, unterhaltsame Lektüre und zugleich ein kraftvoller Kontrapunkt zur gegenwärtigen Diskussion um Eliten und einzelne Meinungsführer. "Die Weisheit der Vielen" ist faszinierend, es ist eines jener Bücher, die die Welt auf den Kopf stellen.

A Tradecraft Primer

Author :
ISBN : OCLC:436207961
Genre : Cognition
File Size : 30. 34 MB
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This primer highlights structured analytic technique--some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions.

Restructuring Structured Analytic Techniques In Intelligence

Author :
ISBN : OCLC:1030861787
Genre :
File Size : 35. 97 MB
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Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are intended to improve intelligence analysis by checking the two canonical sources of error: systematic biases and random noise. Although both goals are achievable, no one knows how close the current generation of SATs comes to achieving either of them. We identify two root problems: (1) SATs treat bipolar biases as unipolar. As a result, we lack metrics for gauging possible over-shooting--and have no way of knowing when SATs that focus on suppressing one bias (e.g., overconfidence) are triggering the opposing bias (e.g., under-confidence); (2) SATs tacitly assume that problem decomposition (e.g., breaking reasoning into rows and columns of matrices corresponding to hypotheses and evidence) is a sound means of reducing noise in assessments. But no one has ever actually tested whether decomposition is adding or subtracting noise from the analytic process--and there are good reasons for suspecting that decomposition will, on balance, degrade the reliability of analytic judgment. The central shortcoming is that SATs have not been subject to sustained scientific of the sort that could reveal when they are helping or harming the cause of delivering accurate assessments of the world to the policy community.

Critical Thinking For Strategic Intelligence

Author : Katherine Hibbs Pherson
ISBN : 9781506316864
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 34. 45 MB
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With this second edition of Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Randolph H. Pherson and Katherine Hibbs Pherson update their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis. New material includes a chapter on working with statistics and probabilities at an introductory level; discussions on how to work with social media; managing the “big data” phenomenon and what role analysis plays both at the front and back end of utilizing such information. Each of the book’s chapters are consistently organized, enabling students and analysts alike to easily trace the key steps of: Setting the Stage; Looking More Deeply; Key Takeaways; Considering the Case Study, and the book’s illustrations include useful graphics that diagram and display the processes and structured analytic techniques for arriving at the best possible analytical products. The “Analyst’s Roadmap” provides an at-a-glance “map” for readers depicting the best practices involved in perfecting the analytical product. A set of carefully crafted case studies on national intelligence, homeland security, and law enforcement issues illustrate how to apply these critical thinking skills tie directly to end-of-chapter questions, providing valuable self-assessment opportunities.

A Tradecraft Primer

Author : U.S. Government
ISBN : 123406586X
Genre :
File Size : 33. 79 MB
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Original publisher: Washington, D.C.: U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, Center for the Study of Intelligence, [2009?] LC Number: BF444 OCLC Number: (OCoLC)436207961 Subject: Intelligence service -- United States -- Methodology. Excerpt: ... THE METHOD s 4 ' t' ' most critical or compelling. An analyst or a team might begin a quality of information check by s ( ' t t ' developing a database in which corroboration of critical reporting. information is stored according to source type and date, with additional notations s J ' ' ' ' ' indicating strengths or weaknesses in 4 information in light of new facts or those sources. Ideally, analysts would circumstances that cast it in a have a retrieval and search capability on different light. the database, so that periodic reviews are less labor intensive and result in a s + ' 't ' ' more complete review of all sources identified and properly flagged for other used in past analysis. For the information analysts; analysis based on recalled review to be fully effective, analysts will reporting should also be reviewed to need as much background information determine if the reporting was essential on sources as is feasible. Knowing the to the judgments made. circumstances in which reporting was obtained is often critical to understanding s ( ' ' ' j its validity. With the data in hand, analysts information has been interpreted and can then: caveated properly. s J' ' ' t t' s 4 t ' ' ' t ' t' accuracy. analysts can place in sources, which 4 are likely to figure in future analytic Analysis of Competing Hypotheses ( ACH ), discussed later in the primer, is a useful technique assessments. for exploring the possibility that dec...

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