probability theory the logic of science

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Probability Theory

Author : E. T. Jaynes
ISBN : 0521592712
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 59. 98 MB
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Probability Theory

Author : Edwin T. Jaynes
ISBN : 0521592720
Genre :
File Size : 77. 9 MB
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Maximum Entropy And Bayesian Methods Garching Germany 1998

Author : Wolfgang von der Linden
ISBN : 9789401147101
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 43. 18 MB
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In 1978 Edwin T. Jaynes and Myron Tribus initiated a series of workshops to exchange ideas and recent developments in technical aspects and applications of Bayesian probability theory. The first workshop was held at the University of Wyoming in 1981 organized by C.R. Smith and W.T. Grandy. Due to its success, the workshop was held annually during the last 18 years. Over the years, the emphasis of the workshop shifted gradually from fundamental concepts of Bayesian probability theory to increasingly realistic and challenging applications. The 18th international workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods was held in Garching / Munich (Germany) (27-31. July 1998). Opening lectures by G. Larry Bretthorst and by Myron Tribus were dedicated to one of th the pioneers of Bayesian probability theory who died on the 30 of April 1998: Edwin Thompson Jaynes. Jaynes revealed and advocated the correct meaning of 'probability' as the state of knowledge rather than a physical property. This inter pretation allowed him to unravel longstanding mysteries and paradoxes. Bayesian probability theory, "the logic of science" - as E.T. Jaynes called it - provides the framework to make the best possible scientific inference given all available exper imental and theoretical information. We gratefully acknowledge the efforts of Tribus and Bretthorst in commemorating the outstanding contributions of E.T. Jaynes to the development of probability theory.

Author : Steven D. Levitt
ISBN : 9789960543932
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 53. 98 MB
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أيهما أشد خطراً، المسدس أم حوض السباحة؟ ما هي الأشياء المشتركة بين معلمي المدارس ومصارعي السومو؟ لماذا ما يزال تجار المخدرات يعيشون مع أمهاتهم؟ ما هو مقدار اهتمام الوالدين حقاً؟ ما هو تأثير قضية «رو» و«ويد» في جرائم العنف؟ قد لا تبدو هذه الأسئلة مثل الأسئلة النمطية التي يسألها الاقتصادي، لكن ستيفن د. ليفيت ليس اقتصادياً نمطياً؛ إنه عالم شجاع أكثر من أي شيء آخر، يدرس المادة والأحاجي في الحياة اليومية ــ من الغش والجريمة إلى الرياضة وتربية الأطفال ــ وتقوم استنتاجاته عادة على قلب الحكمة التقليدية رأساً على عقب. وغالباً ما يبدأ بتل كبير من المعطيات وبسؤال بسيط لم يطرح من قبل. إنه يهتم ببعض هذه الأسئلة مثل قضايا الحياة والموت، وبعضها الآخر ذو ميزات استثنائية دون شك. وهكذا يحتوي هذا الكتاب على حقل جديد من الدراسة، وهو (الاقتصاد العجيب). ومن خلال سرده للقصص الآسرة ومن النظرة العميقة غير المباشرة، يبين ليفيت وزميله ستيفن ج. دوبنر أن الاقتصاد -في جذوره- دراسة للحوافز ـــ كيف يحصل الناس على ما يريدون أو يحتاجون، لاسيما عندما يريد الناس الآخرون الشيء ذاته أو يحتاجونه. في كتابهما (الاقتصاد العجيب)، يشرع المؤلفان في استكشاف الجانب الخفي ـــ من كل شيء؛ الأعمال الداخلية لعصابة مخدرات، وحقيقة الوسطاء العقاريين، وأساطير تمويل الحملات. وقصص الغش لدى معلمي المدارس. وأسرار جمعية كوكلوكس كلان (العرقية). ومن هنا فإذا كانت الأخلاق تمثل كيف نريد للعالم أن يسير، فإن الاقتصاد يمثل كيف يعمل العالم فعلاً. صحيح إن قراء هذا الكتاب سيتسلحون بقصص وأحاجٍ تكفي لتروى في آلاف الحفلات، لكن كتاب (الاقتصاد العجيب) يستطيع أن يقدم أكثر من ذلك، إنه يعيد تعريف الطريقة التي ننظر بها إلى العالم الحديث تعريفاً حرفياً. العبيكان للنشر

Bayesian Logical Data Analysis For The Physical Sciences

Author : Phil Gregory
ISBN : 9781139444286
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 49. 47 MB
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Bayesian inference provides a simple and unified approach to data analysis, allowing experimenters to assign probabilities to competing hypotheses of interest, on the basis of the current state of knowledge. By incorporating relevant prior information, it can sometimes improve model parameter estimates by many orders of magnitude. This book provides a clear exposition of the underlying concepts with many worked examples and problem sets. It also discusses implementation, including an introduction to Markov chain Monte-Carlo integration and linear and nonlinear model fitting. Particularly extensive coverage of spectral analysis (detecting and measuring periodic signals) includes a self-contained introduction to Fourier and discrete Fourier methods. There is a chapter devoted to Bayesian inference with Poisson sampling, and three chapters on frequentist methods help to bridge the gap between the frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Supporting Mathematica® notebooks with solutions to selected problems, additional worked examples, and a Mathematica tutorial are available at www.cambridge.org/9780521150125.

Probability Theory And Probability Logic

Author : Peter Roeper
ISBN : 0802008070
Genre : Philosophy
File Size : 25. 96 MB
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As a survey of many technical results in probability theory and probability logic, this monograph by two widely respected scholars offers a valuable compendium of the principal aspects of the formal study of probability. Hugues Leblanc and Peter Roeper explore probability functions appropriate for propositional, quantificational, intuitionistic, and infinitary logic and investigate the connections among probability functions, semantics, and logical consequence. They offer a systematic justification of constraints for various types of probability functions, in particular, an exhaustive account of probability functions adequate for first-order quantificational logic. The relationship between absolute and relative probability functions is fully explored and the book offers a complete account of the representation of relative functions by absolute ones. The volume is designed to review familiar results, to place these results within a broad context, and to extend the discussions in new and interesting ways. Authoritative, articulate, and accessible, it will interest mathematicians and philosophers at both professional and post-graduate levels.

Entropy Based Design And Analysis Of Fluids Engineering Systems

Author : Greg F. Naterer
ISBN : 1420006916
Genre : Science
File Size : 61. 47 MB
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From engineering fluid mechanics to power systems, information coding theory and other fields, entropy is key to maximizing performance in engineering systems. It serves a vital role in achieving the upper limits of efficiency of industrial processes and quality of manufactured products. Entropy based design (EBD) can shed new light on various flow processes, ranging from optimized flow configurations in an aircraft engine to highly ordered crystal structures in a turbine blade. Entropy Based Design of Fluid Engineering Systems provides an overview of EBD as an emerging technology with applications to aerospace, microfluidics, heat transfer, and other disciplines. The text extends past analytical methods of Entropy Generation Minimization to numerical simulations involving more complex configurations and experimental measurement techniques. The book begins with an extensive development of basic concepts, including the mathematical properties of entropy and exergy, as well as statistical and numerical formulations of the second law. It then goes on to describe topics related to incompressible flows and the Second Law in microfluidic systems. The authors develop computational and experimental methods for identifying problem regions within a system through the local rates of entropy production. With these techniques, designers can use EBD to focus on particular regions where design modifications can be made to improve system performance. Numerous case studies illustrate the concepts in each chapter, and cover an array of applications including supersonic flows, condensation and turbulence. A one-of-a-kind reference, Entropy Based Design of Fluid Engineering Systems outlines new advances showing how local irreversibilities can be detected in complex configurations so that engineering devices can be re-designed locally to improve overall performance.

Foundations Of Probability Theory Statistical Inference And Statistical Theories Of Science

Author : W.L. Harper
ISBN : 9789401018531
Genre : Science
File Size : 45. 97 MB
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In May of 1973 we organized an international research colloquium on foundations of probability, statistics, and statistical theories of science at the University of Western Ontario. During the past four decades there have been striking formal advances in our understanding of logic, semantics and algebraic structure in probabilistic and statistical theories. These advances, which include the development of the relations between semantics and metamathematics, between logics and algebras and the algebraic-geometrical foundations of statistical theories (especially in the sciences), have led to striking new insights into the formal and conceptual structure of probability and statistical theory and their scientific applications in the form of scientific theory. The foundations of statistics are in a state of profound conflict. Fisher's objections to some aspects of Neyman-Pearson statistics have long been well known. More recently the emergence of Baysian statistics as a radical alternative to standard views has made the conflict especially acute. In recent years the response of many practising statisticians to the conflict has been an eclectic approach to statistical inference. Many good statisticians have developed a kind of wisdom which enables them to know which problems are most appropriately handled by each of the methods available. The search for principles which would explain why each of the methods works where it does and fails where it does offers a fruitful approach to the controversy over foundations.

Evolvodynamics The Mathematical Theory Of Economic Evolution

Author : Len H. Wallast
ISBN : 9783642340567
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 64. 70 MB
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Dissatisfied with the flaws of orthodox economics, the author proposes to base economic theory on the three principles of Darwinian evolution (variation, inheritance, selection). Pursuing a suggestion of E.T. Jaynes of 1991, the innovation is in treating economic behavior as chance events of selection. This involves abandoning the methods of mainstream economics and to apply instead the methods by which Claude E. Shannon analyzed information transport over a stationary channel. As economic processes are non-stationary, the author clarifies first how the Shannon-system must be reshaped in a system capable to describe economic evolution mathematically. As economic processes are non-stationary, the author first clarifies how the Shannon system must be reshaped into one capable of describing economic evolutions mathematically. Deriving the universal relations between input, output, the economic growth rate, inflation and money flow involves applying differential sets of selection, Venn diagrams, bitpulses as units of selection and the probability distributions of bitpulses. This is a thought-provocative and highly informative book of which the explanatory power goes far beyond that of traditional economics. It should be on the readers list of everyone concerned with the weal and woe of economic theorizing.

Strategic Economic Decision Making

Author : Jeff Grover
ISBN : 9781461460404
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 44. 52 MB
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Strategic Economic Decision-Making: Using Bayesian Belief Networks to Solve Complex Problems is a quick primer on the topic that introduces readers to the basic complexities and nuances associated with learning Bayes’ theory and inverse probability for the first time. This brief is meant for non-statisticians who are unfamiliar with Bayes’ theorem, walking them through the theoretical phases of set and sample set selection, the axioms of probability, probability theory as it pertains to Bayes’ theorem, and posterior probabilities. All of these concepts are explained as they appear in the methodology of fitting a Bayes’ model, and upon completion of the text readers will be able to mathematically determine posterior probabilities of multiple independent nodes across any system available for study. Very little has been published in the area of discrete Bayes’ theory, and this brief will appeal to non-statisticians conducting research in the fields of engineering, computing, life sciences, and social sciences.

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