predicting the unthinkable anticipating the impossible from the fall of the berlin wall to america in the new century

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Predicting The Unthinkable Anticipating The Impossible

Author : Georgie Anne Geyer
ISBN : 9781351497107
Genre : History
File Size : 65. 38 MB
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In the 1980s, most Americans scoffed at the idea that the Communist empire could collapse - but Georgie Anne Geyer was already outlining that probability. In the 1990s, the world was stunned by wars that raged across post-Yugoslavia and their viciousness - but Geyer on a trip to Belgrade in 1989, interviewed top officials and anticipated the conflicts. When 9/11 occurred, she used common sense and said, 'This was inevitable - the terrorists had already attacked the World Trade Center in 1993 and criminals always return to the scene of the crime.'Geyer argues that while the United States was being praised everywhere during this era of 'indispensable power' as the 'greatest power the world has known,' it actually had started on the road to decline. It had won the Cold War, but had immediately embarked upon more Vietnam-like small wars of tremendous cost in Iraq and Afghanistan. Across the board, it was no longer paying its way, while its domestic culture was being vulgarized at every turn.This book explains how, when, and where these declines happened. Geyer studies the history of nations and of peoples, observes human nature, particularly as influenced by religion and ideology; and is a close analyst of the acts of men and women when they perceive they have been humiliated by others or by history. She warns Americans and journalists that we must anticipate the changes in the world before they are upon us and that we must employ predictions to strengthen our nation and its principles.

The Signal And The Noise

Author : Nate Silver
ISBN : 9780143125082
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 61. 36 MB
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The founder of FiveThirtyEight.com challenges myths about predictions in subjects ranging from the financial market and weather to sports and politics, profiling the world of prediction to explain how readers can distinguish true signals from hype, in a report that also reveals the sources and societal costs of wrongful predictions.

When Cats Reigned Like Kings

Author : Georgie Anne Geyer
ISBN : 9781412846851
Genre : Biography & Autobiography
File Size : 72. 89 MB
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In her fascinating exploration of feline history, Georgie Anne Geyer explores the connections between the royal and sacred felines of ancient civilizations and the beloved domestic cats of today. Chasing an irresistible mystery across the globe, Geyer conducts exhaustive research into the little-known puzzle of how cats came to occupy their unique position in the lives of humans. Treated with the tenacity, resourcefulness, and narrative instinct of a seasoned foreign correspondent, the investigation yields unexpected answers and poses tantalizing new questions. It was Geyer’s curiosity about her own cats that inspired her to study the history of human-feline relations and especially the exalted status of cats among the ancients as royal or sacred beings. In Egypt, Geyer learned of the cat-goddess Bastet and of the cat’s role in the transmigration of souls. In Myanmar she saw Leonardo DiCaprio, Ricky Martin, and the other incongruously named cats of the Nga Phe Kyaung monastery, trained by the monks to jump through hoops. She even met a family who dutifully guards the heritage of the Japanese Bobtail, cultivating the line in—of all places—rural Virginia. Richly illustrated with photographs of Geyer’s journeys and historical cat images, When Cats Reigned Like Kings describes forty-one recognized modern cat breeds plus other popular cats. Every cat lover can, thus, trace his or her cat to these breeds and their many relatives. The result is a remarkable book, bound to delight and amaze cat fanciers and adventure seekers.

Solidarity

Author : Michael Szporer
ISBN : 9780739174876
Genre : History
File Size : 76. 79 MB
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Twenty five interviews with workers and intellectual allies of Solidarity.

Covering Politics In A Post Truth America

Author : Susan B. Glasser
ISBN : 9780815731337
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 20. 19 MB
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In a new Brookings Essay, Politico editor Susan Glasser chronicles how political reporting has changed over the course of her career and reflects on the state of independent journalism after the 2016 election. The Bookings Essay: In the spirit of its commitment to higquality, independent research, the Brookings Institution has commissioned works on major topics of public policy by distinguished authors, including Brookings scholars. The Brookings Essay is a multi-platform product aimed to engage readers in open dialogue and debate. The views expressed, however, are solely those of the author. Available in ebook only.

The Great Deformation

Author : David Stockman
ISBN : 9781586489137
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 29. 88 MB
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A New York Times bestseller The Great Deformation is a searing look at Washington's craven response to the recent myriad of financial crises and fiscal cliffs. It counters conventional wisdom with an eighty-year revisionist history of how the American state—especially the Federal Reserve—has fallen prey to the politics of crony capitalism and the ideologies of fiscal stimulus, monetary central planning, and financial bailouts. These forces have left the public sector teetering on the edge of political dysfunction and fiscal collapse and have caused America's private enterprise foundation to morph into a speculative casino that swindles the masses and enriches the few. Defying right- and left-wing boxes, David Stockman provides a catalogue of corrupters and defenders of sound money, fiscal rectitude, and free markets. The former includes Franklin Roosevelt, who fathered crony capitalism; Richard Nixon, who destroyed national financial discipline and the Bretton Woods gold-backed dollar; Fed chairmen Greenspan and Bernanke, who fostered our present scourge of bubble finance and addiction to debt and speculation; George W. Bush, who repudiated fiscal rectitude and ballooned the warfare state via senseless wars; and Barack Obama, who revived failed Keynesian “borrow and spend” policies that have driven the national debt to perilous heights. By contrast, the book also traces a parade of statesmen who championed balanced budgets and financial market discipline including Carter Glass, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Simon, Paul Volcker, Bill Clinton, and Sheila Bair. Stockman's analysis skewers Keynesian spenders and GOP tax-cutters alike, showing how they converged to bloat the welfare state, perpetuate the military-industrial complex, and deplete the revenue base—even as the Fed's massive money printing allowed politicians to enjoy “deficits without tears.” But these policies have also fueled new financial bubbles and favored Wall Street with cheap money and rigged stock and bond markets, while crushing Main Street savers and punishing family budgets with soaring food and energy costs. The Great Deformation explains how we got here and why these warped, crony capitalist policies are an epochal threat to free market prosperity and American political democracy.

The Great Transformation

Author : Karl Polanyi
ISBN : 9780807056431
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 72. 52 MB
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One of the twentieth century's most thorough and discerning historians, Karl Polanyi sheds "new illumination on . . . the social implications of a particular economic system, the market economy that grew into full stature in the nineteenth century." -R. M. MacIver

The Tragedy Of Great Power Politics Updated Edition

Author : John J. Mearsheimer
ISBN : 0393076245
Genre : Political Science
File Size : 41. 43 MB
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"A superb book.…Mearsheimer has made a significant contribution to our understanding of the behavior of great powers."—Barry R. Posen, The National Interest The updated edition of this classic treatise on the behavior of great powers takes a penetrating look at the question likely to dominate international relations in the twenty-first century: Can China rise peacefully? In clear, eloquent prose, John Mearsheimer explains why the answer is no: a rising China will seek to dominate Asia, while the United States, determined to remain the world's sole regional hegemon, will go to great lengths to prevent that from happening. The tragedy of great power politics is inescapable.

Beating The Fascists

Author : Eve Rosenhaft
ISBN : 052123638X
Genre : History
File Size : 70. 85 MB
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In this book Eve Rosenhaft examines the involvement of Communists in political violence during the years of Hitler's rise to power in Germany (1929-33). Specifically, she aims to account for their participation in `street-fighting' or 'gang-fighting' with National Socialist storm-troopers. The origins of this conflict are examined at two levels. First Dr Rosenhaft analyses the official policy of the Communist Party towards fascism and Nazism, and the special anti-fascist and self-defence organizations which it developed. Among the aspects of Communist policy that are explored are the relation between the international confrontation between Communists and Social Democrats as claimants to lead the left, and the implications of this dispute in German politics; the ideological difficulties in the implementation of Communist policy in a period of economic dislocation; and the organizational problems posed by the fight against fascism. Dr Rosenhaft then explores the attitudes and experience of the Communist rank and file engaged in the struggle against fascism, concentrating on the city of Berlin, where a fierce contest for control of the streets was waged.

The Engineer Of 2020

Author : National Academy of Engineering
ISBN : 9780309091626
Genre : Education
File Size : 22. 57 MB
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To enhance the nation's economic productivity and improve the quality of life worldwide, engineering education in the United States must anticipate and adapt to the dramatic changes of engineering practice. The Engineer of 2020 urges the engineering profession to recognize what engineers can build for the future through a wide range of leadership roles in industry, government, and academia--not just through technical jobs. Engineering schools should attract the best and brightest students and be open to new teaching and training approaches. With the appropriate education and training, the engineer of the future will be called upon to become a leader not only in business but also in nonprofit and government sectors. The book finds that the next several decades will offer more opportunities for engineers, with exciting possibilities expected from nanotechnology, information technology, and bioengineering. Other engineering applications, such as transgenic food, technologies that affect personal privacy, and nuclear technologies, raise complex social and ethical challenges. Future engineers must be prepared to help the public consider and resolve these dilemmas along with challenges that will arise from new global competition, requiring thoughtful and concerted action if engineering in the United States is to retain its vibrancy and strength.

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