modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach the wiley finance series

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Modeling And Forecasting Electricity Loads And Prices

Author : Rafal Weron
ISBN : 9780470059999
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 83. 1 MB
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This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

Electrical Load Forecasting

Author : S.A. Soliman
ISBN : 0123815444
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 88. 27 MB
Format : PDF
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Succinct and understandable, this book is a step-by-step guide to the mathematics and construction of electrical load forecasting models. Written by one of the world’s foremost experts on the subject, Electrical Load Forecasting provides a brief discussion of algorithms, their advantages and disadvantages and when they are best utilized. The book begins with a good description of the basic theory and models needed to truly understand how the models are prepared so that they are not just blindly plugging and chugging numbers. This is followed by a clear and rigorous exposition of the statistical techniques and algorithms such as regression, neural networks, fuzzy logic, and expert systems. The book is also supported by an online computer program that allows readers to construct, validate, and run short and long term models. Step-by-step guide to model construction Construct, verify, and run short and long term models Accurately evaluate load shape and pricing Creat regional specific electrical load models

Energy And Power Risk Management

Author : Alexander Eydeland
ISBN : 9780471455875
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 82. 82 MB
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Praise for Energy and Power Risk Management "Energy and Power Risk Management identifies and addresses the key issues in the development of the turbulent energy industry and the challenges it poses to market players. An insightful and far-reaching book written by two renowned professionals." -Helyette Geman, Professor of Finance University Paris Dauphine and ESSEC "The most up-to-date and comprehensive book on managing energy price risk in the natural gas and power markets. An absolute imperative for energy traders and energy risk management professionals." -Vincent Kaminski, Managing Director Citadel Investment Group LLC "Eydeland and Wolyniec's work does an excellent job of outlining the methods needed to measure and manage risk in the volatile energy market." -Gerald G. Fleming, Vice President, Head of East Power Trading, TXU Energy Trading "This book combines academic rigor with real-world practicality. It is a must-read for anyone in energy risk management or asset valuation." -Ron Erd, Senior Vice President American Electric Power

Modelling Financial Time Series

Author : Stephen J. Taylor
ISBN : 9789812770851
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 59. 13 MB
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This book contains several innovative models for the prices of financial assets. First published in 1986, it is a classic text in the area of financial econometrics. It presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models that are often used and cited in academic research and are applied by quantitative analysts in many banks. Another often-cited contribution of the first edition is the documentation of statistical characteristics of financial returns, which are referred to as stylized facts. This second edition takes into account the remarkable progress made by empirical researchers during the past two decades from 1986 to 2006. In the new Preface, the author summarizes this progress in two key areas: firstly, measuring, modelling and forecasting volatility; and secondly, detecting and exploiting price trends. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Introduction (1,134 KB). Contents: Features of Financial Returns; Modelling Price Volatility; Forecasting Standard Deviations; The Accuracy of Autocorrelation Estimates; Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis; Forecasting Trends in Prices; Evidence Against the Efficiency of Futures Markets; Valuing Options; Appendix: A Computer Program for Modelling Financial Time Series. Readership: Academic researchers in finance & economics; quantitative analysts.

An Introduction To Analysis Of Financial Data With R

Author : Ruey S. Tsay
ISBN : 9781119013464
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 84. 80 MB
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A complete set of statistical tools for beginning financial analysts from a leading authority Written by one of the leading experts on the topic, An Introduction to Analysis of Financial Data with R explores basic concepts of visualization of financial data. Through a fundamental balance between theory and applications, the book supplies readers with an accessible approach to financial econometric models and their applications to real-world empirical research. The author supplies a hands-on introduction to the analysis of financial data using the freely available R software package and case studies to illustrate actual implementations of the discussed methods. The book begins with the basics of financial data, discussing their summary statistics and related visualization methods. Subsequent chapters explore basic time series analysis and simple econometric models for business, finance, and economics as well as related topics including: Linear time series analysis, with coverage of exponential smoothing for forecasting and methods for model comparison Different approaches to calculating asset volatility and various volatility models High-frequency financial data and simple models for price changes, trading intensity, and realized volatility Quantitative methods for risk management, including value at risk and conditional value at risk Econometric and statistical methods for risk assessment based on extreme value theory and quantile regression Throughout the book, the visual nature of the topic is showcased through graphical representations in R, and two detailed case studies demonstrate the relevance of statistics in finance. A related website features additional data sets and R scripts so readers can create their own simulations and test their comprehension of the presented techniques. An Introduction to Analysis of Financial Data with R is an excellent book for introductory courses on time series and business statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate level. The book is also an excellent resource for researchers and practitioners in the fields of business, finance, and economics who would like to enhance their understanding of financial data and today's financial markets.

Introduction To Time Series Analysis And Forecasting

Author : Douglas C. Montgomery
ISBN : 9781118745151
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 82. 90 MB
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Praise for the First Edition "…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics." -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts. Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both popular and modern time series methodologies as well as an introduction to Bayesian methods in forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition also includes: Over 300 exercises from diverse disciplines including health care, environmental studies, engineering, and finance More than 50 programming algorithms using JMP®, SAS®, and R that illustrate the theory and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data New material on frequency domain and spatial temporal data analysis Expanded coverage of the variogram and spectrum with applications as well as transfer and intervention model functions A supplementary website featuring PowerPoint® slides, data sets, and select solutions to the problems Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition is an ideal textbook upper-undergraduate and graduate-levels courses in forecasting and time series. The book is also an excellent reference for practitioners and researchers who need to model and analyze time series data to generate forecasts.

Financial Modelling

Author : Joerg Kienitz
ISBN : 9781118413296
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 59. 73 MB
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Financial Modelling - Theory, Implementation and Practice is a unique combination of quantitative techniques, the application to financial problems and programming using Matlab. The book enables the reader to model, design and implement a wide range of financial models for derivatives pricing and asset allocation, providing practitioners with complete financial modelling workflow, from model choice, deriving prices and Greeks using (semi-) analytic and simulation techniques, and calibration even for exotic options. The book is split into three parts. The first part considers financial markets in general and looks at the complex models needed to handle observed structures, reviewing models based on diffusions including stochastic-local volatility models and (pure) jump processes. It shows the possible risk neutral densities, implied volatility surfaces, option pricing and typical paths for a variety of models including SABR, Heston, Bates, Bates-Hull-White, Displaced-Heston, or stochastic volatility versions of Variance Gamma, respectively Normal Inverse Gaussian models and finally, multi-dimensional models. The stochastic-local-volatility Libor market model with time-dependent parameters is considered and as an application how to price and risk-manage CMS spread products is demonstrated. The second part of the book deals with numerical methods which enables the reader to use the models of the first part for pricing and risk management, covering methods based on direct integration and Fourier transforms, and detailing the implementation of the COS, CONV, Carr-Madan method or Fourier-Space-Time Stepping. This is applied to pricing of European, Bermudan and exotic options as well as the calculation of the Greeks. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is outlined and bridge sampling is discussed in a Gaussian setting and for Lévy processes. Computation of Greeks is covered using likelihood ratio methods and adjoint techniques. A chapter on state-of-the-art optimization algorithms rounds up the toolkit for applying advanced mathematical models to financial problems and the last chapter in this section of the book also serves as an introduction to model risk. The third part is devoted to the usage of Matlab, introducing the software package by describing the basic functions applied for financial engineering. The programming is approached from an object-oriented perspective with examples to propose a framework for calibration, hedging and the adjoint method for calculating Greeks in a Libor Market model. Source code used for producing the results and analysing the models is provided on the author’s dedicated website, http://www.mathworks.de/matlabcentral/fileexchange/authors/246981

Financial Econometrics

Author : Svetlozar T. Rachev
ISBN : 9780470121528
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 35. 92 MB
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A comprehensive guide to financial econometrics Financial econometrics is a quest for models that describe financial time series such as prices, returns, interest rates, and exchange rates. In Financial Econometrics, readers will be introduced to this growing discipline and the concepts and theories associated with it, including background material on probability theory and statistics. The experienced author team uses real-world data where possible and brings in the results of published research provided by investment banking firms and journals. Financial Econometrics clearly explains the techniques presented and provides illustrative examples for the topics discussed. Svetlozar T. Rachev, PhD (Karlsruhe, Germany) is currently Chair-Professor at the University of Karlsruhe. Stefan Mittnik, PhD (Munich, Germany) is Professor of Financial Econometrics at the University of Munich. Frank J. Fabozzi, PhD, CFA, CFP (New Hope, PA) is an adjunct professor of Finance at Yale University’s School of Management. Sergio M. Focardi (Paris, France) is a founding partner of the Paris-based consulting firm The Intertek Group. Teo Jasic, PhD, (Frankfurt, Germany) is a senior manager with a leading international management consultancy firm in Frankfurt.

Handbook Of Power Systems Ii

Author : Steffen Rebennack
ISBN : 3642126863
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 80. 79 MB
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Energy is one of the world`s most challenging problems, and power systems are an important aspect of energy related issues. This handbook contains state-of-the-art contributions on power systems modeling and optimization. The book is separated into two volumes with six sections, which cover the most important areas of energy systems. The first volume covers the topics operations planning and expansion planning while the second volume focuses on transmission and distribution modeling, forecasting in energy, energy auctions and markets, as well as risk management. The contributions are authored by recognized specialists in their fields and consist in either state-of-the-art reviews or examinations of state-of-the-art developments. The articles are not purely theoretical, but instead also discuss specific applications in power systems.

Financial Forecasting Analysis And Modelling

Author : Michael Samonas
ISBN : 9781118921104
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 80. 62 MB
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Risk analysis has become critical to modern financial planning Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling provides a complete framework of long-term financial forecasts in a practical and accessible way, helping finance professionals include uncertainty in their planning and budgeting process. With thorough coverage of financial statement simulation models and clear, concise implementation instruction, this book guides readers step-by-step through the entire projection plan development process. Readers learn the tools, techniques, and special considerations that increase accuracy and smooth the workflow, and develop a more robust analysis process that improves financial strategy. The companion website provides a complete operational model that can be customised to develop financial projections or a range of other key financial measures, giving readers an immediately-applicable tool to facilitate effective decision-making. In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the need for experienced financial modelling professionals has steadily increased as organisations rush to adjust to economic volatility and uncertainty. This book provides the deeper level of understanding needed to develop stronger financial planning, with techniques tailored to real-life situations. Develop long-term projection plans using Excel Use appropriate models to develop a more proactive strategy Apply risk and uncertainty projections more accurately Master the Excel Scenario Manager, Sensitivity Analysis, Monte Carlo Simulation, and more Risk plays a larger role in financial planning than ever before, and possible outcomes must be measured before decisions are made. Uncertainty has become a critical component in financial planning, and accuracy demands it be used appropriately. With special focus on uncertainty in modelling and planning, Financial Forecasting, Analysis and Modelling is a comprehensive guide to the mechanics of modern finance.

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