modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach the wiley finance series

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Modeling And Forecasting Electricity Loads And Prices

Author : Rafal Weron
ISBN : 9780470059999
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 34. 46 MB
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This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

Renewable Energy Forecasting And Risk Management

Author : Philippe Drobinski
ISBN : 9783319990521
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 62. 36 MB
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Gathering selected, revised and extended contributions from the conference ‘Forecasting and Risk Management for Renewable Energy FOREWER’, which took place in Paris in June 2017, this book focuses on the applications of statistics to the risk management and forecasting problems arising in the renewable energy industry. The different contributions explore all aspects of the energy production chain: forecasting and probabilistic modelling of renewable resources, including probabilistic forecasting approaches; modelling and forecasting of wind and solar power production; prediction of electricity demand; optimal operation of microgrids involving renewable production; and finally the effect of renewable production on electricity market prices. Written by experts in statistics, probability, risk management, economics and electrical engineering, this multidisciplinary volume will serve as a reference on renewable energy risk management and at the same time as a source of inspiration for statisticians and probabilists aiming to work on energy-related problems.

Electric Power System Planning

Author : Hossein Seifi
ISBN : 3642179894
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 24. 23 MB
Format : PDF, Docs
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The present book addresses various power system planning issues for professionals as well as senior level and postgraduate students. Its emphasis is on long-term issues, although much of the ideas may be used for short and mid-term cases, with some modifications. Back-up materials are provided in twelve appendices of the book. The readers can use the numerous examples presented within the chapters and problems at the end of the chapters, to make sure that the materials are adequately followed up. Based on what Matlab provides as a powerful package for students and professional, some of the examples and the problems are solved in using M-files especially developed and attached for this purpose. This adds a unique feature to the book for in-depth understanding of the materials, sometimes, difficult to apprehend mathematically. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to Power System Planning (PSP) issues and basic principles. As most of PSP problems are modeled as optimization problems, optimization techniques are covered in some details in Chapter 2. Moreover, PSP decision makings are based on both technical and economic considerations, so economic principles are briefly reviewed in Chapter 3. As a basic requirement of PSP studies, the load has to be known. Therefore, load forecasting is presented in Chapter 4. Single bus Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) problem is described in Chapter 5. This study is performed using WASP-IV, developed by International Atomic Energy Agency. The study ignores the grid structure. A Multi-bus GEP problem is discussed in Chapter 6 in which the transmission effects are, somehow, accounted for. The results of single bus GEP is used as an input to this problem. SEP problem is fully presented in Chapter 7. Chapter 8 devotes to Network Expansion Planning (NEP) problem, in which the network is planned. The results of NEP, somehow, fixes the network structure. Some practical considerations and improvements such as multi-voltage cases are discussed in Chapter 9. As NEP study is typically based on some simplifying assumptions and Direct Current Load Flow (DCLF) analysis, detailed Reactive Power Planning (RPP) study is finally presented in Chapter 10, to guarantee acceptable ACLF performance during normal as well as contingency conditions. This, somehow, concludes the basic PSP problem. The changing environments due to power system restructuring dictate some uncertainties on PSP issues. It is shown in Chapter 11 that how these uncertainties can be accounted for. Although is intended to be a text book, PSP is a research oriented topic, too. That is why Chapter 12 is devoted to research trends in PSP. The chapters conclude with a comprehensive example in Chapter 13, showing the step-by-step solution of a practical case.

Handbook Of Power Systems Ii

Author : Steffen Rebennack
ISBN : 3642126863
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 51. 77 MB
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Energy is one of the world`s most challenging problems, and power systems are an important aspect of energy related issues. This handbook contains state-of-the-art contributions on power systems modeling and optimization. The book is separated into two volumes with six sections, which cover the most important areas of energy systems. The first volume covers the topics operations planning and expansion planning while the second volume focuses on transmission and distribution modeling, forecasting in energy, energy auctions and markets, as well as risk management. The contributions are authored by recognized specialists in their fields and consist in either state-of-the-art reviews or examinations of state-of-the-art developments. The articles are not purely theoretical, but instead also discuss specific applications in power systems.

Handbook Of Multi Commodity Markets And Products

Author : Andrea Roncoroni
ISBN : 9780470661833
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 37. 87 MB
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The comprehensive guide to working more effectively within the multi-commodity market. The Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products is the definitive desktop reference for traders, structurers, and risk managers who wish to broaden their knowledge base. This non-technical yet sophisticated manual covers everything the professional needs to become acquainted with the structure, function, rules, and practices across a wide spectrum of commodity markets. Contributions from a global team of renowned industry experts provide real-world examples for each market, along with tools for analyzing, pricing, and risk managing deals. The discussion focuses on convergence, including arbitrage valuation, econometric modeling, market structure analysis, contract engineering, and risk, while simulated scenarios help readers understand the practical application of the methods and models presented. Gradual deregulation and the resulting increase in diversity and activity have driven the evolution of the traditionally segmented market toward integration, raising important questions about opportunity identification and analysis in multi-commodity deals. This book helps professionals navigate the shift, providing in-depth information and practical advice. Structure and manage both simple and sophisticated multi-commodity deals Exploit pay-off profiles and trading strategies with a diversified set of commodity prices Develop more accurate forecasting models by considering additional metrics Price energy products and other commodities in segmented markets with an eye toward specific structural features As one of the only markets strong enough to boom during the credit crunch, the commodities markets are growing rapidly. Combined with increasing convergence, this transition presents potentially valuable opportunities for the development of a robust multi-commodity portfolio. For the professional seeking deeper understanding and a more effective strategy, the Handbook of Multi-Commodity Markets and Products offers complete information and expert guidance.

The World Of Cross Listings And Cross Listings Of The World

Author : Christopher C. Géczy
ISBN : OSU:32435083716720
Genre : Capital market
File Size : 26. 10 MB
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Risk Assessment Of Power Systems

Author : Wenyuan Li
ISBN : 9780471631682
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 30. 31 MB
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"Risk Assessment of Power Systems closes the gap between risk theory and real-world application. As a leading authority in power system risk evaluation for more than fifteen years and the author of a considerable number of papers and more than fifty technical reports on power system risk and reliability evaluation, Wenyuan Li is uniquely qualified to present this material. Following the models and methods developed from the author's hands-on experience, readers learn how to evaluate power system risk in planning, design, operations, and maintenance activities to keep risk at targeted levels."--BOOK JACKET.

Tourism Economics

Author :
ISBN : PSU:000059748595
Genre : Tourism
File Size : 43. 25 MB
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Journal Of Business Economic Statistics

Author : American Statistical Association
ISBN : 07350015
Genre :
File Size : 52. 84 MB
Format : PDF
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Journal Of Business Economic Satistics

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ISBN :
Genre :
File Size : 60. 86 MB
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