modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices a statistical approach the wiley finance series

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Modeling And Forecasting Electricity Loads And Prices

Author : Rafal Weron
ISBN : 9780470059999
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 68. 73 MB
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This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company processes—electricity prices and loads. It provides coverage of seasonal decomposition, mean reversion, heavy-tailed distributions, exponential smoothing, spike preprocessing, autoregressive time series including models with exogenous variables and heteroskedastic (GARCH) components, regime-switching models, interval forecasts, jump-diffusion models, derivatives pricing and the market price of risk. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices is packaged with a CD containing both the data and detailed examples of implementation of different techniques in Matlab, with additional examples in SAS. A reader can retrace all the intermediate steps of a practical implementation of a model and test his understanding of the method and correctness of the computer code using the same input data. The book will be of particular interest to the quants employed by the utilities, independent power generators and marketers, energy trading desks of the hedge funds and financial institutions, and the executives attending courses designed to help them to brush up on their technical skills. The text will be also of use to graduate students in electrical engineering, econometrics and finance wanting to get a grip on advanced statistical tools applied in this hot area. In fact, there are sixteen Case Studies in the book making it a self-contained tutorial to electricity load and price modeling and forecasting.

Electric Power System Planning

Author : Hossein Seifi
ISBN : 3642179894
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 68. 50 MB
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The present book addresses various power system planning issues for professionals as well as senior level and postgraduate students. Its emphasis is on long-term issues, although much of the ideas may be used for short and mid-term cases, with some modifications. Back-up materials are provided in twelve appendices of the book. The readers can use the numerous examples presented within the chapters and problems at the end of the chapters, to make sure that the materials are adequately followed up. Based on what Matlab provides as a powerful package for students and professional, some of the examples and the problems are solved in using M-files especially developed and attached for this purpose. This adds a unique feature to the book for in-depth understanding of the materials, sometimes, difficult to apprehend mathematically. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to Power System Planning (PSP) issues and basic principles. As most of PSP problems are modeled as optimization problems, optimization techniques are covered in some details in Chapter 2. Moreover, PSP decision makings are based on both technical and economic considerations, so economic principles are briefly reviewed in Chapter 3. As a basic requirement of PSP studies, the load has to be known. Therefore, load forecasting is presented in Chapter 4. Single bus Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) problem is described in Chapter 5. This study is performed using WASP-IV, developed by International Atomic Energy Agency. The study ignores the grid structure. A Multi-bus GEP problem is discussed in Chapter 6 in which the transmission effects are, somehow, accounted for. The results of single bus GEP is used as an input to this problem. SEP problem is fully presented in Chapter 7. Chapter 8 devotes to Network Expansion Planning (NEP) problem, in which the network is planned. The results of NEP, somehow, fixes the network structure. Some practical considerations and improvements such as multi-voltage cases are discussed in Chapter 9. As NEP study is typically based on some simplifying assumptions and Direct Current Load Flow (DCLF) analysis, detailed Reactive Power Planning (RPP) study is finally presented in Chapter 10, to guarantee acceptable ACLF performance during normal as well as contingency conditions. This, somehow, concludes the basic PSP problem. The changing environments due to power system restructuring dictate some uncertainties on PSP issues. It is shown in Chapter 11 that how these uncertainties can be accounted for. Although is intended to be a text book, PSP is a research oriented topic, too. That is why Chapter 12 is devoted to research trends in PSP. The chapters conclude with a comprehensive example in Chapter 13, showing the step-by-step solution of a practical case.

Commodity Option Pricing

Author : Iain J. Clark
ISBN : 9781444362411
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 84. 32 MB
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Commodity Option Pricing: A Practitioner’s Guide covers commodity option pricing for quantitative analysts, traders or structurers in banks, hedge funds and commodity trading companies. Based on the author’s industry experience with commodity derivatives, this book provides a thorough and mathematical introduction to the various market conventions and models used in commodity option pricing. It introduces the various derivative products typically traded for commodities and describes how these models can be calibrated and used for pricing and risk management. The book has been developed with input from traders and examples using real world data, together with relevant up to date academic research. The book includes practical descriptions of market conventions and quote codes used in commodity markets alongside typical products seen in broker quotes and used in calibration. Also discussed are commodity models and their mathematical derivation and volatility surface modelling for traded commodity derivatives. Gold, silver and other precious metals are addressed, including gold forward and gold lease rates, as well as copper, aluminium and other base metals, crude oil and natural gas, refined energy and electricity. There are also sections on the products encountered in commodities such as crack spread and spark spread options and alternative commodities such as carbon emissions, weather derivatives, bandwidth and telecommunications trading, plastics and freight. Commodity Option Pricing is ideal for anyone working in commodities or aiming to make the transition into the area, as well as academics needing to familiarize themselves with the industry conventions of the commodity markets.

Handbook Of Power Systems Ii

Author : Steffen Rebennack
ISBN : 3642126863
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 63. 98 MB
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Energy is one of the world`s most challenging problems, and power systems are an important aspect of energy related issues. This handbook contains state-of-the-art contributions on power systems modeling and optimization. The book is separated into two volumes with six sections, which cover the most important areas of energy systems. The first volume covers the topics operations planning and expansion planning while the second volume focuses on transmission and distribution modeling, forecasting in energy, energy auctions and markets, as well as risk management. The contributions are authored by recognized specialists in their fields and consist in either state-of-the-art reviews or examinations of state-of-the-art developments. The articles are not purely theoretical, but instead also discuss specific applications in power systems.

Statistical Tools For Finance And Insurance

Author : Pavel Cizek
ISBN : 3642180620
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 78. 93 MB
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Statistical Tools for Finance and Insurance presents ready-to-use solutions, theoretical developments and method construction for many practical problems in quantitative finance and insurance. Written by practitioners and leading academics in the field, this book offers a unique combination of topics from which every market analyst and risk manager will benefit. Features of the significantly enlarged and revised second edition: Offers insight into new methods and the applicability of the stochastic technology Provides the tools, instruments and (online) algorithms for recent techniques in quantitative finance and modern treatments in insurance calculations Covers topics such as - expected shortfall for heavy tailed and mixture distributions* - pricing of variance swaps* - volatility smile calibration in FX markets - pricing of catastrophe bonds and temperature derivatives* - building loss models and ruin probability approximation - insurance pricing with GLM* - equity linked retirement plans*(new topics in the second edition marked with*) Presents extensive examples

American Book Publishing Record

Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015066180434
Genre : American literature
File Size : 76. 63 MB
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Risk Assessment Of Power Systems

Author : Wenyuan Li
ISBN : 9780471631682
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 68. 87 MB
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Power system risk assessment is becoming an important and mandatory task in planning, operation, maintenance, and asset management of utilities, particularly under the deregulation environment. This book will provide readers with the tools to solve practical problems using appropriate risk assessment techniques. Both analytical and Monte Carlo evaluation methods are discussed with an emphasis on applied techniques and actual considerations in generation, transmission, substation, and distribution systems.

Tourism Economics

Author :
ISBN : PSU:000059748595
Genre : Tourism
File Size : 60. 73 MB
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Aanwinsten Van De Centrale Bibliotheek Queteletfonds

Author : Bibliothèque centrale (Fonds Quetelet)
ISBN : STANFORD:36105113264944
Genre :
File Size : 47. 86 MB
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The Energy Index

Author :
ISBN : UOM:39015047792943
Genre : Power resources
File Size : 78. 92 MB
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