elicitation of expert opinions for uncertainty and risks

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Elicitation Of Expert Opinions For Uncertainty And Risks

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
ISBN : 9781420040906
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 57. 19 MB
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Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures. Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.

Experts In Uncertainty

Author : Roger M. Cooke
ISBN : 0195362373
Genre : Science
File Size : 71. 62 MB
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This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

Uncertain Judgements

Author : Anthony O'Hagan
ISBN : 9780470033302
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 69. 47 MB
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Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Uncertainty Analysis In Engineering And Sciences Fuzzy Logic Statistics And Neural Network Approach

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
ISBN : 9781461554738
Genre : Computers
File Size : 24. 82 MB
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Uncertainty has been of concern to engineers, managers and . scientists for many centuries. In management sciences there have existed definitions of uncertainty in a rather narrow sense since the beginning of this century. In engineering and uncertainty has for a long time been considered as in sciences, however, synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Only since the early sixties views on uncertainty have ~ecome more heterogeneous and more tools to model uncertainty than statistics have been proposed by several scientists. The problem of modeling uncertainty adequately has become more important the more complex systems have become, the faster the scientific and engineering world develops, and the more important, but also more difficult, forecasting of future states of systems have become. The first question one should probably ask is whether uncertainty is a phenomenon, a feature of real world systems, a state of mind or a label for a situation in which a human being wants to make statements about phenomena, i. e. , reality, models, and theories, respectively. One cart also ask whether uncertainty is an objective fact or just a subjective impression which is closely related to individual persons. Whether uncertainty is an objective feature of physical real systems seems to be a philosophical question. This shall not be answered in this volume.

Risk And Uncertainty In Dam Safety

Author : Desmond N. D. Hartford
ISBN : 0727732706
Genre : Technology & Engineering
File Size : 41. 36 MB
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Risk and Uncertainty in Dam Safety, is an authoritative, comprehensive, valuable and welcome contribution to dam safety practices. Through the presentation of a systematic and integrated process, it assists the dam owner in evaluating the needs for dam safety improvement, selecting and prioritizing remedial and corrective actions, and improving the operation, maintenance and surveillance procedures. The book is a result of the unique cooperation among experienced and knowledgeable dam owners, dam safety managers and engineers, and experts in the theoretical basis for risk assessment.

Risk Of Vessel Accidents And Spills In The Aleutian Islands

Author : Transportation Research Board
ISBN : 9780309177450
Genre : Nature
File Size : 86. 4 MB
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TRB Special Report 293, Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands: Designing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment, provides guidance for a comprehensive risk assessment of vessel accidents and spills in the Aleutian Islands. The report examines data related to the risk of oil, chemical, and other hazardous cargo spills from vessel traffic through the Aleutian Islands and identifies key information needed to conduct a comprehensive risk assessment.

Risk Analysis In Engineering And Economics Second Edition

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
ISBN : 9781466518261
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 89. 78 MB
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Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics is required reading for decision making under conditions of uncertainty. The author describes the fundamental concepts, techniques, and applications of the subject in a style tailored to meet the needs of students and practitioners of engineering, science, economics, and finance. Drawing on his extensive experience in uncertainty and risk modeling and analysis, the author covers everything from basic theory and key computational algorithms to data needs, sources, and collection. He emphasizes practical use of the methods presented and carefully examines the limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of each to help readers translate the discussed techniques into real-world solutions. This Second Edition: Introduces the topic of risk finance Incorporates homeland security applications throughout Offers additional material on predictive risk management Includes a wealth of new and updated end-of-chapter problems Delivers a complementary mix of theoretical background and risk methods Brings together engineering and economics on balanced terms to enable appropriate decision making Presents performance segregation and aggregation within a risk framework Contains contemporary case studies, such as protecting hurricane-prone regions and critical infrastructure Provides 320+ tables and figures, over 110 diverse examples, numerous end-of-book references, and a bibliography Unlike the classical books on reliability and risk management, Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Second Edition relates underlying concepts to everyday applications, ensuring solid understanding and use of the methods of risk analysis.

Encyclopedia Of Quantitative Risk Analysis And Assessment

Author : Edward L. Melnick
ISBN : 9780470035498
Genre : Health & Fitness
File Size : 56. 48 MB
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Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.

Risk And Uncertainty Assessment For Natural Hazards

Author : Jonathan Rougier
ISBN : 9781107310766
Genre : Science
File Size : 43. 1 MB
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Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

Uncertainty Modeling And Analysis In Engineering And The Sciences

Author : Bilal M. Ayyub
ISBN : 9781420011456
Genre : Business & Economics
File Size : 43. 66 MB
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Engineers and scientists often need to solve complex problems with incomplete information resources, necessitating a proper treatment of uncertainty and a reliance on expert opinions. Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences prepares current and future analysts and practitioners to understand the fundamentals of knowledge and ignorance, how to model and analyze uncertainty, and how to select appropriate analytical tools for particular problems. This volume covers primary components of ignorance and their impact on practice and decision making. It provides an overview of the current state of uncertainty modeling and analysis, and reviews emerging theories while emphasizing practical applications in science and engineering. The book introduces fundamental concepts of classical, fuzzy, and rough sets, probability, Bayesian methods, interval analysis, fuzzy arithmetic, interval probabilities, evidence theory, open-world models, sequences, and possibility theory. The authors present these methods to meet the needs of practitioners in many fields, emphasizing the practical use, limitations, advantages, and disadvantages of the methods.

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