bayesian networks an introduction wiley series in probability and statistics

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Bayesian Networks

Author : Timo Koski
ISBN : 9781119964957
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 23. 18 MB
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Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications. A detailed description of learning algorithms and Conditional Gaussian Distributions using Junction Tree methods. A discussion of Pearl's intervention calculus, with an introduction to the notion of see and do conditioning. All concepts are clearly defined and illustrated with examples and exercises. Solutions are provided online. This book will prove a valuable resource for postgraduate students of statistics, computer engineering, mathematics, data mining, artificial intelligence, and biology. Researchers and users of comparable modelling or statistical techniques such as neural networks will also find this book of interest.

Bayesian Networks

Author : Olivier Pourret
ISBN : 0470994541
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 79. 12 MB
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Bayesian Networks, the result of the convergence of artificial intelligence with statistics, are growing in popularity. Their versatility and modelling power is now employed across a variety of fields for the purposes of analysis, simulation, prediction and diagnosis. This book provides a general introduction to Bayesian networks, defining and illustrating the basic concepts with pedagogical examples and twenty real-life case studies drawn from a range of fields including medicine, computing, natural sciences and engineering. Designed to help analysts, engineers, scientists and professionals taking part in complex decision processes to successfully implement Bayesian networks, this book equips readers with proven methods to generate, calibrate, evaluate and validate Bayesian networks. The book: Provides the tools to overcome common practical challenges such as the treatment of missing input data, interaction with experts and decision makers, determination of the optimal granularity and size of the model. Highlights the strengths of Bayesian networks whilst also presenting a discussion of their limitations. Compares Bayesian networks with other modelling techniques such as neural networks, fuzzy logic and fault trees. Describes, for ease of comparison, the main features of the major Bayesian network software packages: Netica, Hugin, Elvira and Discoverer, from the point of view of the user. Offers a historical perspective on the subject and analyses future directions for research. Written by leading experts with practical experience of applying Bayesian networks in finance, banking, medicine, robotics, civil engineering, geology, geography, genetics, forensic science, ecology, and industry, the book has much to offer both practitioners and researchers involved in statistical analysis or modelling in any of these fields.

Bayesian Networks For Probabilistic Inference And Decision Analysis In Forensic Science

Author : Franco Taroni
ISBN : 9781118914748
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 70. 88 MB
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"This book should have a place on the bookshelf of every forensic scientist who cares about the science of evidence interpretation" Dr. Ian Evett, Principal Forensic Services Ltd, London, UK Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. • Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. • Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. • Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. • Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader’s own analysis of real cases. • Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. • Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. • Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. • Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Case Studies In Bayesian Statistical Modelling And Analysis

Author : Clair L. Alston
ISBN : 9781118394328
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 49. 83 MB
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Provides an accessible foundation to Bayesian analysis using real world models This book aims to present an introduction to Bayesian modelling and computation, by considering real case studies drawn from diverse fields spanning ecology, health, genetics and finance. Each chapter comprises a description of the problem, the corresponding model, the computational method, results and inferences as well as the issues that arise in the implementation of these approaches. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis: Illustrates how to do Bayesian analysis in a clear and concise manner using real-world problems. Each chapter focuses on a real-world problem and describes the way in which the problem may be analysed using Bayesian methods. Features approaches that can be used in a wide area of application, such as, health, the environment, genetics, information science, medicine, biology, industry and remote sensing. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis is aimed at statisticians, researchers and practitioners who have some expertise in statistical modelling and analysis, and some understanding of the basics of Bayesian statistics, but little experience in its application. Graduate students of statistics and biostatistics will also find this book beneficial.

Bayesian Statistics And Marketing

Author : Peter E. Rossi
ISBN : 9780470863688
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 32. 70 MB
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The past decade has seen a dramatic increase in the use of Bayesian methods in marketing due, in part, to computational and modelling breakthroughs, making its implementation ideal for many marketing problems. Bayesian analyses can now be conducted over a wide range of marketing problems, from new product introduction to pricing, and with a wide variety of different data sources. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing describes the basic advantages of the Bayesian approach, detailing the nature of the computational revolution. Examples contained include household and consumer panel data on product purchases and survey data, demand models based on micro-economic theory and random effect models used to pool data among respondents. The book also discusses the theory and practical use of MCMC methods. Written by the leading experts in the field, this unique book: Presents a unified treatment of Bayesian methods in marketing, with common notation and algorithms for estimating the models. Provides a self-contained introduction to Bayesian methods. Includes case studies drawn from the authors’ recent research to illustrate how Bayesian methods can be extended to apply to many important marketing problems. Is accompanied by an R package, bayesm, which implements all of the models and methods in the book and includes many datasets. In addition the book’s website hosts datasets and R code for the case studies. Bayesian Statistics and Marketing provides a platform for researchers in marketing to analyse their data with state-of-the-art methods and develop new models of consumer behaviour. It provides a unified reference for cutting-edge marketing researchers, as well as an invaluable guide to this growing area for both graduate students and professors, alike.

Risk Assessment And Decision Analysis With Bayesian Networks Second Edition

Author : Norman Fenton
ISBN : 9781351978965
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 63. 71 MB
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Since the first edition of this book published, Bayesian networks have become even more important for applications in a vast array of fields. This second edition includes new material on influence diagrams, learning from data, value of information, cybersecurity, debunking bad statistics, and much more. Focusing on practical real-world problem-solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms and theory, it explains how to incorporate knowledge with data to develop and use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide more powerful insights and better decision making than is possible from purely data-driven solutions. Features Provides all tools necessary to build and run realistic Bayesian network models Supplies extensive example models based on real risk assessment problems in a wide range of application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, forensics, cybersecurity and more Introduces all necessary mathematics, probability, and statistics as needed Establishes the basics of probability, risk, and building and using Bayesian network models, before going into the detailed applications A dedicated website contains exercises and worked solutions for all chapters along with numerous other resources. The AgenaRisk software contains a model library with executable versions of all of the models in the book. Lecture slides are freely available to accredited academic teachers adopting the book on their course.

Bayesian Statistical Modelling

Author : Peter Congdon
ISBN : 9780470035931
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 88. 80 MB
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Bayesian methods combine the evidence from the data at hand with previous quantitative knowledge to analyse practical problems in a wide range of areas. The calculations were previously complex, but it is now possible to routinely apply Bayesian methods due to advances in computing technology and the use of new sampling methods for estimating parameters. Such developments together with the availability of freeware such as WINBUGS and R have facilitated a rapid growth in the use of Bayesian methods, allowing their application in many scientific disciplines, including applied statistics, public health research, medical science, the social sciences and economics. Following the success of the first edition, this reworked and updated book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and analysis, with an emphasis on the principles of prior selection, identification and the interpretation of real data sets. The second edition: Provides an integrated presentation of theory, examples, applications and computer algorithms. Discusses the role of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods in computing and estimation. Includes a wide range of interdisciplinary applications, and a large selection of worked examples from the health and social sciences. Features a comprehensive range of methodologies and modelling techniques, and examines model fitting in practice using Bayesian principles. Provides exercises designed to help reinforce the reader’s knowledge and a supplementary website containing data sets and relevant programs. Bayesian Statistical Modelling is ideal for researchers in applied statistics, medical science, public health and the social sciences, who will benefit greatly from the examples and applications featured. The book will also appeal to graduate students of applied statistics, data analysis and Bayesian methods, and will provide a great source of reference for both researchers and students. Praise for the First Edition: “It is a remarkable achievement to have carried out such a range of analysis on such a range of data sets. I found this book comprehensive and stimulating, and was thoroughly impressed with both the depth and the range of the discussions it contains.” – ISI - Short Book Reviews “This is an excellent introductory book on Bayesian modelling techniques and data analysis” – Biometrics “The book fills an important niche in the statistical literature and should be a very valuable resource for students and professionals who are utilizing Bayesian methods.” – Journal of Mathematical Psychology

Machine Learning

Author : Steven W. Knox
ISBN : 9781119439073
Genre : Computers
File Size : 53. 27 MB
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AN INTRODUCTION TO MACHINE LEARNING THAT INCLUDES THE FUNDAMENTAL TECHNIQUES, METHODS, AND APPLICATIONS Machine Learning: a Concise Introduction offers a comprehensive introduction to the core concepts, approaches, and applications of machine learning. The author—an expert in the field—presents fundamental ideas, terminology, and techniques for solving applied problems in classification, regression, clustering, density estimation, and dimension reduction. The design principles behind the techniques are emphasized, including the bias-variance trade-off and its influence on the design of ensemble methods. Understanding these principles leads to more flexible and successful applications. Machine Learning: a Concise Introduction also includes methods for optimization, risk estimation, and model selection— essential elements of most applied projects. This important resource: Illustrates many classification methods with a single, running example, highlighting similarities and differences between methods Presents R source code which shows how to apply and interpret many of the techniques covered Includes many thoughtful exercises as an integral part of the text, with an appendix of selected solutions Contains useful information for effectively communicating with clients A volume in the popular Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Machine Learning: a Concise Introduction offers the practical information needed for an understanding of the methods and application of machine learning. STEVEN W. KNOX holds a Ph.D. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois and an M.S. in Statistics from Carnegie Mellon University. He has over twenty years’ experience in using Machine Learning, Statistics, and Mathematics to solve real-world problems. He currently serves as Technical Director of Mathematics Research and Senior Advocate for Data Science at the National Security Agency.

Engineering Biostatistics

Author : Brani Vidakovic
ISBN : 9781119168966
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 31. 11 MB
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Provides a one-stop resource for engineers learning biostatistics using MATLAB® and WinBUGS Through its scope and depth of coverage, this book addresses the needs of the vibrant and rapidly growing bio-oriented engineering fields while implementing software packages that are familiar to engineers. The book is heavily oriented to computation and hands-on approaches so readers understand each step of the programming. Another dimension of this book is in parallel coverage of both Bayesian and frequentist approaches to statistical inference. It avoids taking sides on the classical vs. Bayesian paradigms, and many examples in this book are solved using both methods. The results are then compared and commented upon. Readers have the choice of MATLAB® for classical data analysis and WinBUGS/OpenBUGS for Bayesian data analysis. Every chapter starts with a box highlighting what is covered in that chapter and ends with exercises, a list of software scripts, datasets, and references. Engineering Biostatistics: An Introduction using MATLAB® and WinBUGS also includes: parallel coverage of classical and Bayesian approaches, where appropriate substantial coverage of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference material that has been classroom-tested in an introductory statistics course in bioengineering over several years exercises at the end of each chapter and an accompanying website with full solutions and hints to some exercises, as well as additional materials and examples Engineering Biostatistics: An Introduction using MATLAB® and WinBUGS can serve as a textbook for introductory-to-intermediate applied statistics courses, as well as a useful reference for engineers interested in biostatistical approaches.

Bayesian Statistics

Author : Peter M. Lee
ISBN : 9781118359778
Genre : Mathematics
File Size : 73. 13 MB
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Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as well as how it contrasts with the conventional approach. The theory is built up step by step, and important notions such as sufficiency are brought out of a discussion of the salient features of specific examples. This edition: Includes expanded coverage of Gibbs sampling, including more numerical examples and treatments of OpenBUGS, R2WinBUGS and R2OpenBUGS. Presents significant new material on recent techniques such as Bayesian importance sampling, variational Bayes, Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). Provides extensive examples throughout the book to complement the theory presented. Accompanied by a supporting website featuring new material and solutions. More and more students are realizing that they need to learn Bayesian statistics to meet their academic and professional goals. This book is best suited for use as a main text in courses on Bayesian statistics for third and fourth year undergraduates and postgraduate students.

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